Second week of profits in a row but I made a lot of mistakes. Most important things I noticed:

  • Whether something is ranging or trending is really important to win rate
  • Just because something is trending strong all of a sudden doesn’t mean it’s going to revert.
  • My strategies do work on the 5 minute pretty well

mistakes:

  • not getting into a pullback because I thought the trend was to overbought.
  • not noticing when something is ranging quick enough
  • not believing in my strategy and missing a win
  • Trying a new strategy without properly back testing.

successes:

  • trading with the higher timeframe trend
  • opening up my stops a bit
  • Good patience toward the end of the week where there weren’t any good openings
  • using the 300MA is a good way of identifying trend
  • short only on AUS200 works pretty well

US2000 0.5 win rate experiment.

My trades worked but it’s only because US2000 was in a strong downward trend. I wrote a backtesting script that broke even because this strategy gets destroyed during trend changes and ranging markets actually a 1:1 works just as well.

Next Week

  • Look for a 1:1 - 4x ATR risk on good trending ($5 risk)
  • Continue My 50MA cross strategy with the 300MA as direction indicator. Maybe I’ll just aim for 3:1 and open up risk a bit
  • Look for 1:1 reversals on ranging markets.