Week Four October in review
Second week of profits in a row but I made a lot of mistakes. Most important things I noticed:
- Whether something is ranging or trending is really important to win rate
- Just because something is trending strong all of a sudden doesn’t mean it’s going to revert.
- My strategies do work on the 5 minute pretty well
mistakes:
- not getting into a pullback because I thought the trend was to overbought.
- not noticing when something is ranging quick enough
- not believing in my strategy and missing a win
- Trying a new strategy without properly back testing.
successes:
- trading with the higher timeframe trend
- opening up my stops a bit
- Good patience toward the end of the week where there weren’t any good openings
- using the 300MA is a good way of identifying trend
- short only on AUS200 works pretty well
US2000 0.5 win rate experiment.
My trades worked but it’s only because US2000 was in a strong downward trend. I wrote a backtesting script that broke even because this strategy gets destroyed during trend changes and ranging markets actually a 1:1 works just as well.
Next Week
- Look for a 1:1 - 4x ATR risk on good trending ($5 risk)
- Continue My 50MA cross strategy with the 300MA as direction indicator. Maybe I’ll just aim for 3:1 and open up risk a bit
- Look for 1:1 reversals on ranging markets.