November has been 4 weeks of losses or break evens on Pepperstone. IG was a pretty good month though so overall a positive. No big blowouts on Pepperstone but just no real good moves. Missed two really big moves that would have been good profits.

mistakes:

no consistant sizing
not sticking to my strategy after a few losses

successes:

Not over-trading

US2000 0.5 win rate experiment.

I did more back testing and this is actually a pretty bad strategy. It probably beats buy and hold if you have some good mechanic for spotting ranges and staying out of them

What to focus on:

AUD/USD - I’m going to start doing daily entries at previous high/low. I think I can get a pretty consistant 10:1 with this if my stop is around 1x hourly atr. re-enter once.

I’ve been looking at the USD/JPY on the one minute and it seems like you can do a similar thing on the lower timeframe so that’s something to consider. 5 min doesn’t do as well. I think that’s because not enough bars per session so volitility of each open fucks it.

rules for the 1 min:

stop: 2x ATR (not including spread)
target: 5x risk (not including spread)
bring up to break even after clearing 1xATR
If volitility contracts a lot just play the breakout

One thing that’s interesting is that entering at support/resstance is so much more effective than an aribtrary line. If Technical analysis is just confirmation bias than shouldn’t setting an arbitrary buy or sell line work as well as setting a line at previous high/low?

For my usual 300 SMA on the hourly I’m changing to 10 day which is about the same anyway but now using the 30day as a longer term trend so if I find myself in a range I’ll just do trades with the trend. Maybe I’ll do entries on the 30 day cross.

Things to think about:

Should I only enter at support/resistance? If I know the price is more likely to do something strong there (either break out or revert) I should have a higher win rate becauese I want get stopped out so much